NAND Flash Brand Supplier Revenue Falls 6.6% in First Quarter: TrendForce

The shipment performances of Smartphones, Tablets, and Notebooks were relatively weak in the first quarter due to seasonality. As a result of the entire NAND Flash market’s oversupply in 1Q 2014, the branded suppliers’ Q1 revenues saw a 6.6% drop compared to the previous quarter, and slid to approximately US$ 7,244 million, according to Sean Yang, Assistant Vice President at DRAMeXchange, the memory and storage research division of TrendForce. 

Looking at the branded supplier revenue ranking, Samsung managed to retain its lead in the market with approximately US$ 2,175 million in sales, but saw its market share dip slightly to 30.0%; Toshiba came in second with a revenue total of US$ 1,548 million and an improved market share of 21.4%; SanDisk ended up in third place with US$ 1,367 million in revenue, while Micron came in fourth with US$ 1,050 million; Affected by its capacity allocations, SK Hynix's revenues slid to approximately US$ 594 million, resulting in market share of 8.2%.

NAND Flash Manufacturer Highlights

Samsung: 
The majority of Samsung's market momentum in the first quarter came from the high density memory card, eMCP, and SSD products. Even though the weak shipments of high end smartphones in the second quarter are anticipated to impact sales of eMMC and other related products, the momentum of the enterprise SSD shipments, which in 2Q 2014 is estimated to rise by at least 15%, is expected to remain strong. With regard to the technological migration progresses, Samsung is currently known to already produce its entire line of PC-based eMMC and eMCP SSDs using 19nm technology. The company’s Xi’an fab, whose operations officially begin in May, will focus entirely on manufacturing 3D NAND Flash components. Samples of Samsung's 3D NAND Flash enterprise SSDs are already being delivered to US, European and Chinese clients for testing.

Toshiba:
Toshiba's A-19 nm production ratio will improve to approximately 50% in 2Q 2014 as it begins mass producing A-19 nm eMMC and eMCP products. In 2H 2014, the company will begin to promote its A19 nm TLC Basis eMMC and eMCP SSD products as a means to improve its market share and shipment performances. With the second phase of the company's Fab 5 construction expected to be completed during 3Q 2014 and the deployment of relevant equipment likely to take place in the following quarter, Toshiba may be able to begin volume production of its 1znm and 3D NAND Flash products as early as 1Q 2015.

SanDisk: 
SanDisk’s 1ynm production ratio will exceed 50% in the second quarter, while 19nm products will be reserved for enterprise SSD and other specialty products. 1znm test production will begin in the fourth quarter, and 3D NAND flash mass production will not begin until 2016. As equipment will not be moved into SanDisk’s joint venture with Toshiba, fab 5, until the fourth quarter, this year’s output will come from technology migration. SanDisk’s bit output is projected to see 25-35% YoY growth in 2014. Looking at product ratios, SSD (client and enterprise SSD) accounted for 28% of total revenue in the first quarter, an increase over 21% in the first quarter of 2013. Embedded products did not fare as well, limited by weak mobile shipments in the first quarter. In 2014, SanDisk will place priority on Enterprise SSD products.

SK Hynix: 
Given the sluggish demands for Mobile devices in 1Q 2014 and the fact that SK Hynix's NAND Flash capacity had yet to be fully restored, the Korean company's  NAND Flash shipments were down 8% QoQ for the first quarter, while average market selling price fell by approximately 14%. SK Hynix's NAND Flash revenue drop is essentially the result of both its internal structural adjustments and market-related factors. In 2Q 2014, SK Hynix will be expected to restore its NAND Flash capacity to 150k/m, the level before last year's fire accident, while its shipments are anticipated to rise by more than 40% as major OEM clients begin replenishing their inventories. Considering how the company is already beginning to accelerate its migration towards the 16nm process, its 16nm production ratio could rise to as high as 70% during the fourth quarter. In the second half of the year, SK Hynix's eMMC SSD products will serve as a major growth driver for NAND Flash products.

Micron: 
Despite the company's 35% shipment growth in 1Q 2014 and the 12% drop in its manufacturing cost, Micron's NAND Solution Group (NSG) still saw its operating profit ratio drop to 8.5% due to the 18% average selling price decline in the first quarter. Assuming additional time is needed by the company's OEM clients to verify the chips produced at its Singapore plant, the overall market momentum for SSD products will likely slow down and lead to potentially increased supplies for the retail memory card and UFD markets in 2Q 2014 and 3Q 2014. Looking at Micron’s existing divisions, the company’s “Storage Business Unit” is currently expected to receive portions of NSG's businesses and begin handling operations related to SSD products. The newly established “Memory Solutions Group,” on the other hand, will be responsible for the development of NAND Flash chips. Micron's efforts to integrate its NAND Flash OEM products are expected to strengthen gradually throughout 2H 2014.

Intel: 
The demands for enterprise SSDs have increased in recent periods following the successful development of cloud computing technology and the increase in the number of US, European, and Asian data centers seeking to raise their use of SSDs. Thanks to Intel's current lead in the enterprise SSD markets, the company's NAND Flash revenue has managed to grow by an estimated 6% QoQ to US$ 510 million. In the upcoming periods, Intel will look to expand its entire enterprise SSD product line by continuing to develop PCI-E and SATA Express products, and will start raising its 20nm production ratio as a means to improve its cost competitiveness.