Penetration Rate of AI NBs to Arrive at 20% by 2025 as AI Applications Steadily Refine and Actuate Consumer Demand, Says TrendForce

As indicated by TrendForce’s latest survey, global NB shipment remains inhibited in market dynamics due to geopolitics and high interest rates throughout 2024. Generally speaking, demand for replacement of entry consumer and educational models served as the actuation for market activeness for 1H24, whereas the pending stabilization of the economy and additional launches of AI NBs in 2H24 would stimulate the need of upgrading to high-performance NBs among enterprises. Annual shipment is projected at 173.45 million units at a YoY growth of 3.6% in 2024. 

Penetration Rate of AI NBs to Surge from 1% in 2024 to 20% in 2025

TrendForce pointed out that new AI NBs equipped with strict configurations will be successively launched throughout 2H24, with early models mostly priced at a relatively high range of US$1,099 - US$1,699, which could be met with deterrence in purchase momentum under the unstable economy. Annual market penetration for AI NBs is thus projected at about 1% for 2024. 

TrendForce is projecting a rapid growth of penetration rate to 20.4% for AI NBs by 2025 under the surging demand among consumers for end equipment that is smarter and more efficient as AI applications are able to handle complex tasks, offer a better user experience, and elevate productivity, as they refine in functions. AI NBs are also expected to climb in popularization throughout the next several years incessantly alongside NBs adopted with AI chips and high-end functions by additional brands. 

Windows on Arm to Break New Ground in NB Market during 2025

Judging by the evolution of platforms, Windows on Arm (WoA) will be portraying an essential role alongside the expeditious development of AI NBs in the future, and gradually carving up the market share of x86. The WoA platform, offering better energy efficiency and performance, is based on the Arm architecture, and contributes significantly to the need of power conservation among mobile devices, such as NBs. AI NBs, adopted with Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Elite and Plus, had debuted in May this year, and are running on the Windows 11 OS. Additionally, the Arm chip co-developed by MediaTek and NVIDIA, with adoption of Wi-Fi 7 and 5G, is also slated to occupy a spot in the AI NB market since 2Q25, and initiate a new wave of technical innovation after 2025. According to TrendForce’s forecast, Arm chips are likely to surpass 20% in market penetration at an accelerated velocity in 2025. 

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