Rising Inventories and Weak Seasonal Demand May Push 1Q25 NAND Flash Prices Down by Over 10%, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s latest investigations reveal that NAND Flash suppliers are expected to face mounting inventory levels and deteriorating demand for orders in 1Q25, with average contract prices forecast to decline by a QoQ of 10-15%. While wafer price declines are expected to narrow, enterprise SSD orders may offer some buffer against further price erosion. Client SSD and UFS products, on the other hand, are likely to experience continued price drops due to weak sales of consumer electronics and conservative buyer sentiment.

As the market prepares to enter its traditional off-season in 1Q25, potential drivers such as end-of-support for Windows 10 and CPU launches provide some positive outlook. However, applications for AI PCs remain immature and have not been able to incentivize consumers. 

Clearing existing client SSD inventory remains a top priority in 1H25 for upstream suppliers. However, suppliers will need to lower contract prices given weak demand and heavy inventory pressure. TrendForce forecasts a QoQ drop of 13-18% for contract prices of client SSD in 1Q25.

TrendForce reports that demand for enterprise SSDs is expected to grow throughout 2025, driven by AI and enterprise storage applications. However, procurement volumes are expected to decline in 1Q25 due to seasonal weakness.

On the supply side, some suppliers are shifting focus to high-capacity products (>60 TB) to meet anticipated demand next year, leading to price reductions for 16 TB and 30 TB inventory—potentially at significant levels. As a result, contract prices of enterprise SSD are expected to decline by a QoQ of 5-10% in 1Q25.

As for eMMC products, smartphone manufacturers are expected to prioritize inventory digestion and favor lower-priced module products in 1Q25. Additionally, season procurement peaks for education projects have passed, while telecom and network infrastructure projects face delays. 

Faced with significant pricing pressure from module makers, suppliers will have no choice but to lower contract prices significantly. eMMC prices are forecast to drop by a QoQ of 13-18% in 1Q25.

While UFS adoption continues to grow in premium smartphones and automotive electronics, overall weak smartphone demand is expected to persist in 1Q25. Coupled with price competition from module suppliers, these factors will force suppliers to cut UFS prices further. TrendForce estimates contract prices of UFS will decline by a QoQ of 13-18% in 1Q25.

TrendForce points out that amid uncertain demand in 1H25 and ongoing price declines, module makers are expected to show limited interest in wafer procurement, focusing only on specific specifications in small quantities. 

Contract prices of wafers are projected to fall by a QoQ of 13-18% in 1Q25—with the potential for even steeper declines—among intensified competition among suppliers and cautious procurement strategies by module makers.

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