Downstream Inventory Reduction Eases DRAM Price Decline in 2Q25, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s latest findings reveal that U.S. tariff hikes prompted most downstream brands to frontload shipments to 1Q25, accelerating inventory reduction across the memory supply chain. Looking ahead to the second quarter, conventional DRAM prices are expected to decline by just 0–5% QoQ, while average DRAM pricing including HBM is forecast to rise by 3–8%, driven by increasing shipments of HBM3e 12hi.

PC and server DRAM prices to hold steady

In response to potential U.S. tariff hikes, major PC OEMs are requesting ODMs to increase production, accelerating DRAM depletion in their inventories. OEMs with lower inventory levels may raise procurement from suppliers in Q2 to ensure stable DRAM supply for the second half of 2025.

On the supply side, although Samsung’s HBM qualification progress is slower than expected, it has not shifted significant capacity back to conventional DRAM. SK hynix remains focused on server and mobile DRAM, limiting PC DDR5 supply. In contrast, DDR4 prices remain weak due to sluggish consumer demand and continued capacity expansion from Chinese suppliers. As a result, PC DRAM prices are expected to remain flat QoQ in Q2.

For server DRAM, increased procurement of general-purpose servers by the top three North American CSPs and intensified AI server investment in China have boosted server ODM utilization and driven strong DDR5 demand. 

Although suppliers are transitioning DDR4 capacity to DDR5, initial supply remains tight. Rising HBM demand—particularly from NVIDIA’s B200 and B300 series—adds further strain on capacity allocation. As such, DDR5 prices are expected to stabilize in Q2, with DDR4 declines smaller than expected, leading to flat average contract pricing overall.

Mobile DRAM prices to rise slightly; graphics DRAM slows decline; consumer DRAM sees recovery

Mobile DRAM demand has improved due to China’s smartphone subsidies and a slight increase in high-end smartphone shipments. Additional demand from PC and server applications has driven up LPDDR5X bit consumption. While LPDDR4X supply is ample due to aggressive expansion by a Chinese vendor, prices are expected to decline only modestly by 0–5%. Despite bit supply growth, LPDDR5X remains undersupplied, and suppliers are fostering a tight-supply sentiment, supporting a projected increase of 0–5% QoQ.

TrendForce observes that GDDR7 demand in Q2 will mainly come from next-gen graphics card stocking. GDDR7 prices are expected to hold flat or edge down slightly due to tight supply. GDDR6 prices are expected to decline by just 3–8%, supported by demand from DeepSeek’s open-source AI model. While GDDR7 production is ramping up, supply remains inconsistent. To prevent further price drops, major DRAM suppliers are bundling GDDR6 to stabilize contract pricing and accelerate inventory clearance.

The consumer DRAM segment is expected to benefit from new infrastructure rollouts, including 4G/5G base stations and fiber upgrades, which should gradually increase demand. Healthy inventory levels are prompting more aggressive purchasing, supporting a return to QoQ growth. 

On the supply side, DRAM makers became more conservative in 2H24, cutting DDR3/DDR4 output in response to inventory pressure and weak end-market demand. DDR4 contract prices are expected to rise 0–5% in 2Q25 with production slowing and demand rebounding. DDR3 prices will likely remain flat as previous overstock levels continue to weigh on the market despite recent procurement activity.

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