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The NAND Flash market has remained in oversupply for the whole year of 2018, according to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, with sufficient inventories for notebook/smartphone OEMs. The China-US trade war and the shortage of Intel CPU have made situations worse on the supply side. In October, the contract prices of SSD, and eMMC/UFS witnessed continued fall, while the price drop of NAND Flash chips and wafers appeared to be larger.
Contract prices of PC DRAM products have started to turn downward sharply this October as major suppliers have completed most contract negotiations, reports DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce. The average price of 4GB PC DRAM modules for 4Q18 contracts has dropped by 10.14% QoQ from US$34.5 in 3Q18 to the current US$31. As for the average contract price of 8GB PC DRAM modules, it has dropped by 10.29% QoQ from US$68 in 3Q18 to the current US$61. Since the DRAM market has just entered oversupply, DRAMeXchange does not discount the possibility of further price declines in November and December. Also, the price decline of 8GB solutions will continue to surpass that of 4GB solutions because DRAM suppliers are now eager to sell off their inventory.
According to the latest report - New Display Technology Cost Analysis - by WitsView, a division of TrendForce, Mini LED technology has made constant process over the past year, with a significant increase in production output (in unit per hour, UPH) and die bond accuracy. Looking ahead to 2019, WitsView expects a high possibility of the mass production of products with Mini LED backlighting. The processing costs of display units may increase by 20%~100% depending on the number of Mini LED used.
According to DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, DRAM products have begun to see a weak price trend, showing only a 1~2% QoQ hike in contract prices for 3Q18 due to the continued oversupply, despite the coming of holiday sales season. DRAMeXchange expects the quotations of DRAM products to decline by 5% or more QoQ in 4Q18, terminating the super cycle of price growth for nine consecutive quarters. NAND Flash experienced a price drop of around 10% in 3Q18 and expects a steeper drop of 10~15% in the fourth quarter, considering the impacts of trade war. Contract prices of 3D TLC NAND Flash chips in the channel market may even drop by more than 15% in 4Q18.
In this release, TrendForce provides predictions of the information and communication technology industry for 2019, focusing on 10 key themes. Some of these themes continue from last year but will show significant evolution in the upcoming year.