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Volume production of PV cells based on PERC (passivated emitter rear cell) technology is expected to reach a new peak in 2017 on account of advances in equipment and manufacturing process. The latest PERC technology report from EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, states that PERC cell suppliers that began to expand their production capacity last year will be completing their works in the first half of 2017. Global PV cell production capacity on the whole will increase this year, while PERC cell capacity is forecast to reach 25GW by the year’s end. The total annual output of PERC cells is also expected to double compared with 2016.
EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, estimates that the total PV demand worldwide for 2016 will reach 69.5GW. The installation rush in China during the year’s first half and significant market growth in the U.S. and India have been driving this year’s demand.
Global volume demand for lithium batteries that power xEVs (plug-in vehicles) is estimated to reach 1.7 billion units in 2016 and grow by 17% annually to 2 billion units in 2017, according to EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce. EnergyTrend reports that the China has taken measures to curb excessive subsidy payments to domestic xEV manufacturers during the second half of 2016. Thus, the delay in subsidy payments and investigation on potential cases of subsidy fraud have impacted market demand for xEV batteries in the short term. With the investigation winding down, China’s xEV market is expected to make full recovery and again become the key demand driver for xEV batteries in 2017.
Product orders are tapering off across the PV supply chain as some projects that are required to connect to the grid before the year-end deadline are almost completed. Though polysilicon, wafer and cell prices have been on the rise during the past one and half months, the market demand has cooled down a bit. Corrine Lin, assistance research manager of EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, stated that prices of polysilicon, wafers and cells will soon experience a small decline.
The result of the U.S. election may further aggravate the oversupply situation in the global PV market, according to Celeste Tsai, analyst for EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce. The federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar power, which the U.S. Congress has extend to the end of December 2022 will maintain PV demand in the U.S. at 8~13GW each year from 2017 to 2019. “Donald Trump’s administration wholly supports fossil fuels over renewable energies, so there is a strong possibility that the U.S. will stop subsidizing the installation of PV systems altogether,” noted Tsai. “Under this scenario, the U.S. will witness a great urgency to install PV systems before the ITC cut-off date, followed by a freeze in domestic demand and a worsening of the current oversupply problem in the global PV market.”
