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EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, indicates that the market is generally optimistic about the demand in 2014. But since subsidies have been cut significantly, the development for large-scale power plants is to be tested. Whether self-consumption segment can fill the gap in a short period of time has become critical to the continual market growth. “Supply adjustment will still be required in 2014 and the consolidation processes will also continue. Sales channels will be mostly handled by first-tier manufacturers and the impact on the spot market will be larger. Therefore, in 2014, the market will slowly grow, which will raise polysilicon price. But since China may cancel the government’s so-called “handbook”, US$20/kg may be the ceiling price for polysilicon manufacturers in the Short Run.
EnergyTrend indicates that in 2013, global PV market demand increased quarter by quarter and the amount of grid-connected installation reached 31.5GW as expected. The actual demand turned out to be better than expected - 35.8GW rather than the 33GW predicted earlier because orders were placed ahead of time in the Japanese and Chinese market. Among all, demand from EMEA (including Europe, Middle East and Africa), USA, and Asia accounted for 32%, 15%, and 53%, respectively. “Market demand is still going to be strong in 2014 and China, Japan, and USA will remain the top 3 PV markets, representing 50% of the global demand. Overall, demand in the second half of 2014 will still be better than the first half of 2014. Market demand in the entire 2014 will be around 42GW, a 17% rise compares to 2013,” said Jason Huang, research manager of EnergyTrend.
EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, indicates that although PV industry is entering the traditional off-peak season, demand is likely to remain strong due to the 4Q13 performance. The utilization rate for major manufacturers in both Taiwan and China remains high, and their demand toward upstream raw material is still strong. It causes polysilicon market trade to stay active recently, with spot price rising continuously.
TrendForce Shanghai Office---Demand from China, Japan, and USA will represent about 50% of the total worldwide market share in 2014. Due to the recovery of the European market and the rise of the emerging markets, supply and demand in the PV industry will be able to achieve equilibrium. EnergyTrend research manager, Jason Huang, points out the three major trends within the PV industry, which are high-efficiency products, energy-storage systems, and merge and acquisitions.
Since orders have been continually finalized in December, PV demand is likely to remain strong during off-peak season in 4Q13. According to EnergyTrend, a research division of TrendForce, the overall PV demand is likely to remain high in 1Q14. In addition, the market will demand more high-efficiency products, which may lead to supply shortage for high-efficiency products. Therefore, contract trading, which has disappeared for a long time, may return to the wafer market.
