TrendForce believes, regardless of the outcome of this probe, the tariff exemption that the US government has recently granted for PV module imports from Southeast Asia will remain in force. The exemption applies to modules that are to be imported before June 6, 2024 and installed at project sites before December 2024. Therefore, the initial ruling has no tangible impact during the interim period.
TrendForce indicates that the rapid rise in the penetration rate of the global new energy vehicle (NEV) market has stimulated an increase in the installed capacity of power batteries on a yearly basis. At the same time, the technological path of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the field of electrochemical energy storage has become the mainstream solution for new installed capacity in recent years and its market share is rising rapidly. As EV and energy storage batteries are retired on a large-scale in the future, TrendForce estimates that the global market for EV and energy storage battery recycling will exceed 1TWh by 2030, of which the scope of lithium iron phosphate battery recycling will account for more than a 58% share.
Driven by the global net zero emission target, the transformation of road transportation towards electrification is accelerating and the global new energy vehicle (NEV) industry is in a period of rapid growth, driving a surge in power battery demand. By 2024, the installed capacity of the global power battery market is expected to increase from a GWh-scale to TWh, exceeding 3TWh by 2030, of which China's installed capacity of power batteries is expected to account for approximately 45% of the world total.
Large-scale utilization of renewable energy is the fundamental path to achieving a comprehensive decarbonization of the power grid. During this process, new energy storage technology represented by electrochemical energy storage has become an important cornerstone for the sustained growth in the proportion of installed renewable energy. According to TrendForce statistics, global installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage is expected to reach approximately 65GWh in 2022 and 1,160Gwh by 2030, of which 70% of storage demand originates from the power generation side, which is the primary source of momentum supporting the installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage.
Constrained by carbon neutrality and carbon peaking targets and enveloped by a bullish backdrop of declining system costs, the global installed capacity of wind and solar energy has shown a steady growth trend over the past five years. According to TrendForce statistics, the cumulative installed capacity of global renewable energy in 2021 was approximately 3,064GW (gigawatts), with an average annual growth rate of approximately 8-10% and 88% as the highest application of wind and solar energy in any area.
