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The NAND Flash contract prices have dropped by approximately 3%-5% in 1H’Jan compared to 2H’December, according to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce. Looking at the demand side, with the estimated 1Q14 shipments of OEM devices such as Smartphones, Tablets, and Notebooks expected to fall by 15-20% QoQ, more and more NAND Flash manufacturers are beginning to increase their shipments to the module clients.
Worldwide smartphone shipments reached 265 million units in 4Q13, showing a growth of 6.5% QoQ and 32.2% YoY, according to TrendForce’s research. Thanks to the recent momentum brought about by Apple’s new iPhones, the proportion of high-end smartphone devices shipped jumped from 35% in 3Q13 to 37% in 4Q13, whereas that for the mid to low-range models (ie. those whose prices fall within the range of US$450~US$150) remained at approximately 50%. For the entire 2013, worldwide smartphone shipments increased by an estimated 33.5% YoY, ending at approximately 945 million units. With smartphone makers ramping up Q4 shipments as a means to fulfill 2013 sales targets and pressures related to inventory digestion mounting, TrendForce projects that the global smartphone shipments will drop by an estimated 5.1% in 1Q14.
The DRAM contract prices have gradually begun to decline due the increased production at SK Hynix's Wuxi Plant and the industry's eased shortage situation, according to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce. The highest price for mainstream 4GB modules has already fallen from US$35 to US$34, and is perceived to be a leading indicator of the impending price changes within the market. Calculating on the basis of the market's average prices ($US33), the price of the 4Gb chip is estimated to be approximately $US 3.81, which is around 10.3% less than the US$4.203 spot price. Avril Wu, TrendForce’s assistant vice president, projects that the DRAM contract prices will first converge with the market spot prices by the end of the first quarter, and then begin to fall during 2Q14.
The growth of Smartphones, tablets, and SSDs helped boost NAND Flash demand to 46% in 2013, according to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce. Industry value, on the other hand, rose by nearly 22% compared to 2012, and arrived at approximately US$ 24.6 Billion. With SSD applications gradually being sought after by the enterprise clients, demand for NAND Flash is expected to reach 36% in 2014, while industry value is set to exceed US$ 27 Billion. “More and more end devices are anticipated to equip NAND Flash components as technological processes advance and lead to a gradual reduction in OEM manufacturing cost,” Sean Yang, TrendForce’s assistant vice president, said.
The 1H'Dec NAND Flash contract prices have dropped by 1-3% compared to 2H'Nov, according to DRAMeXchange, a research division of global market research firm TrendForce. The average NAND Flash chip prices for the entire month of November were affected by the quarter-end effect in the US market and the underwhelming demand in the industry, and as a result slid by 10-11% from October. With a good number of the module manufacturers being reserved about the Christmas and Chinese New Year shopping periods, their inventory levels also tended to be higher than usual. On the whole, the NAND Flash suppliers' general unwillingness to resort to price reductions following the massive November shipments can be said to have contributed to the relatively unnoticeable decline in the 1H'Dec NAND Flash contract prices.
