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TrendForce reports that Q4 contract prices for mobile DRAM are poised to see an increased quarterly rise of 13–18%. But that’s not all—NAND Flash is also joining the party, with contract prices of eMMC and UFS expected to climb by approximately 10–15% in the same quarter. This quarter is set to star mobile DRAM, traditionally the underperformer in profit margins compared to its DRAM counterparts, as it takes the lead in this round of price increases.
TrendForce reports that consumer appetite for electronic products took a hit from high inflation, with global DRAM module sales in 2022 reaching US$17.3 billion—a 4.6% YoY decline. Revenue performance varied significantly among module makers due to the different domains they supply.
October 17th brings a new round of developments in the ongoing chip war between US and China as the Department of Commerce issued another update to its export control regulations. This time, the update included the targeting of sectors such as semiconductor manufacturing equipment and HPC chips (primarily AI chips) as well as the addition of two new companies onto the Entity List. TrendForce points out that a significant change is the formal inclusion of the NXT:1980Di—which was previously in a grey area—into the list of controlled items. However, since ASML has already been green-lit for shipments post-application, the immediate ripples from this move remain to be seen.
TrendForce reports that from 2023 to 2027, the global ratio of mature (>28nm) to advanced (<16nm) processes is projected to hover around 7:3. Propelled by policies and incentives promoting local production and domestic IC development, China’s mature process capacity is anticipated to grow from 29% this year to 33% by 2027. Leading the charge are giants like SMIC, HuaHong Group, and Nexchip, while Taiwan’s share is estimated to consolidate from 49% down to 42%.
In this press release, TrendForce details the major trends that are expected to take place across various segments in the tech industry in 2024, as follows:
