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A powerful magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurred off the coast of Fukushima, Japan on the evening of March 16th (CST). Most of northeastern Japan is a production center for global upstream semiconductor raw materials. According to TrendForce investigations, in the main quake zone, only Kioxia’s K1 Fab (located in Kitakami) will face the possibility of a further downgrade to 1Q22 production. Some of the remaining memory or semiconductor companies in the region are conducting machine inspections but the overall impact has been muted.
The output value of the world’s top 10 foundries in 4Q21 reached US$29.55 billion, or 8.3% growth QoQ, according to TrendForce’s research. This is due to the interaction of two major factors. One is limited growth in overall production capacity. At present, the shortage of certain components for TVs and laptops has eased but there are other peripheral materials derived from mature process such as PMIC, Wi-Fi, and MCU that are still in short supply, precipitating continued fully loaded foundry capacity. Second is rising average selling price (ASP). In the fourth quarter, more expensive wafers were produced in succession led by TSMC and foundries continued to adjust their product mix to increase ASP. In terms of changes in this quarter's top 10 ranking, Nexchip overtook incumbent DB Hitek to clinch 10th place.
At present, the materials with the most development potential are Wide Band Gap (WBG) semiconductors with high power and high frequency characteristics, including silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN), which are mainly used in electric vehicles (EV) and the fast charging battery market. TrendForce research estimates, the output value of third generation power semiconductors will grow from US$980 million in 2021 to US$4.71 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of 48%.
Intel and AMD will be releasing new CPUs that support DDR5 DRAM solutions for PCs and servers this year. In response, the DRAM industry led by South Korean suppliers is developing solutions to complement the arrival of the new CPUs. In the midst of the gradual shift to DDR5, DRAM suppliers will also scale back the supply of DDR3 solutions, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. With Korean suppliers accelerating their withdrawal from DDR3 production, Taiwanese suppliers yet to kick off mass production using newly installed capacities, and Chinese suppliers falling short of their expected yield rate, the global supply of DDR3 solutions will undergo an impending decline. With respect to the demand side, however, not only has the supply of networking chips been ramping up, but material shortage issues are also gradually easing. As such, buyers are now procuring DDR3 solutions ahead of time, resulting in a tight supply and demand situation in the DDR3 market. TrendForce therefore expects DDR3 DRAM prices to recover from a bearish first quarter and undergo a 0-5% QoQ increase in 2Q22.
Since February 14, UMC subsidiary Hejian Technology (HJTC), had entered phased shutdown and temporary suspension due to the pandemic, according to TrendForce's investigation. The plant is an 8-inch fab and its production capacity accounts for approximately 25% of UMC's total 8-inch capacity and approximately 3% of global 8-inch capacity. Since this incident was not an unforeseen accident, utilization rate during the phased shutdown was maintained at roughly 25~30% and wafers on the production line did not need to be scrapped. The plant has gradually resumed operation today (2/24). Since it takes approximately five to seven days to recalibrate semiconductor equipment, full recovery of overall utilization rate is expected to fall in early March with an estimated wafer input loss of 14~20 days, affecting approximately 4~5% of the company's 8-inch production capacity this quarter or approximately 0.4~0.5% of global 8-inch production capacity, a manageable situation overall.
