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According to the latest analysis from the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, the consistent increase in DRAM spot prices since December and the power outage at Samsung’s Hwaseong fab on December 31, 2019 have not seriously impacted the supply side of the DRAM market. But on the demand side, memory buyers have furthered their willingness to build up inventories. Thus, TrendForce is again adjusting the 1Q20 DRAM contract price forecast from “mostly holding steady”, as previously reported, to “slightly trending upward”, indicating an earlier-than-anticipated kickoff of the cyclical upturn.
According to the latest analysis by the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, the contract price of client SSD has fallen for seven consecutive quarters until 2Q19 from peak price, to barely above the price of HDD. As a result of this price decrease, the share of SSD, along with their capacity, used in notebook computers has risen since 2Q19. On the supply side, the June 15 power outage at the Yokkaichi fab jointly operated by Kioxia and WDC forced the two companies to reduce their NAND production, in turn halting the price drop of eMMC/UFS and SSD products in 3Q19. On the other hand, there was a sharp uptick in the wafer market leading to a 20% increase in 3Q19 wafer prices. As well, the contract prices of eMMC/UFS and SSD made a strong recovery in 4Q19.
According to the newest analysis from the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, server DRAM prices are expected to lead the uptrend in 1Q20 DRAM prices because the supply has been constrained by unstable yield rates of 1Xnm processes. Also, Graphics DRAM prices will see a corresponding sharp rebound. Graphics DRAM is more sensitive to demand change than other types of memory products, so its price fluctuations can be dramatic as well. With OEM clients raising their stock-up demand, Graphics DRAM contract prices are projected to increase by over 5% QoQ, the highest among all memory products.
According to the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, the global server market has slowed its growth in 2019 in light of factors such as the current global trade situation and the shift of ODM production lines. However, as the China-U.S. trade relations improved in 2H19, market demand also returned to form, with data centers being the main driver of market growth.
According to the latest analysis of TrendForce’s DRAMeXchange research division, DRAM spot prices have begun to rebound, in turn improving the overall DRAM market sentiment, and memory component buyers in the contract market will be induced to raise their inventories as well. Contract prices are expected to rally as early as 1Q20.
