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DRAMeXchange , a division of TrendForce , says that besides the effects from the traditional offseason 1Q this year, the weakening demand in 4Q18 has pushed smartphone and server OEMs to begin adjusting their inventories. This in turn lowered sales bit performance across all products, causing overall NAND flash contract prices to see the most dramatic drop since 1Q18.
According to the latest investigations by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, DRAM prices have faced mounting pressure to trend down in 1Q, the traditional offseason. Not only was this due to the production capacities added in 2H18, which found full expression in 1Q, but also a compressed procurement momentum by a demand side busy clearing out their own inventories. This caused a pronounced double-decline effect: Both DRAM prices and volume fell in 1Q, causing overall production revenue to drop by 28.6 % QoQ.
According to the newest statistics from TrendForce, judging from the falling phone sales 1Q19 impacted by the US-China trade dispute and the oversupply situation in memory markets, the total revenue of the top ten businesses in packaging and testing are predicted to stand at US$4.71 billion, a 11.8% decline YoY. Among the ten, Amkor, Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Tech (JCET), Tongfu Microelectronics (TFME), Tianshui Huatien (TSHT), Powertech and the United Test and Assembly Center (UTAC) all registered double digit declines in revenue for 1Q.
Whether DRAM or NAND Flash, current memory solutions are straining the physical limits of production processes, meaning it is becoming more and more difficult to keep on raising performance and lowering costs. Therefore, there has been much discussion revolving around Intel Optane and other next-generation memories in recent years, in hopes of discovering new solutions while keeping modifications to the current platform to a minimum or even leaving it completely untouched. DRAMeXchange , a division of TrendForce , holds that next-generation memories and current solutions have their respective pros and cons, with prices forming the most critical areas of opportunity.
Due to frictions from the US-China trade dispute, China's two DRAM giants are showing clear signs of slowing. According to research by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC), which forms the main bulwark of NAND flash development in China, will be mass producing 64-layer Xtacking 3D NAND products this year end as scheduled. YMTC's capacity expansion in 2020 is projected to impact supply and prices in the global NAND flash market.