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The memory market (including DRAM and NAND Flash) is still in a state of oversupply in 4Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. In light of recent U.S. sanctions against Huawei, other smartphone brands have been actively stocking up on memory products in an effort to capture Huawei’s lost market shares, but this procurement momentum is insufficient to improve the lethargic state of the memory market. In addition, as memory demand from the server industry has yet to make a noticeable recovery, overall memory ASP is expected to remain weak in 4Q20 and decrease by about 10% QoQ.
In this release, TrendForce provides its forecast of 10 key trends in the tech industry for 2021.
On October 4, 2020, SMIC made formal announcements assessing the Commerce Department’s notification to SMIC's suppliers that they will be restricted from shipping certain U.S.-originated equipment, components, and raw materials to the Chinese foundry, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. U.S.-based semiconductor equipment suppliers, including Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA, are expected to bear the brunt of the impact from the latest sanction against SMIC, while Netherlands-based ASML will be affected as well, since its machines contain U.S.-originated key components. By contrast, TrendForce’s preliminary analysis indicates that the export restrictions will likely have less of an impact on suppliers of silicon wafers and other raw chemical materials for semiconductors, since these suppliers are mostly Japanese and European companies.
Yearly TV panel shipment for 2020 is projected to reach 267.53 million units, a 6.2% decrease YoY, while shipment by area is projected to increase by 0.7% YoY, coming to 169.6 million square meters, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. The decrease can mostly be attributed to three factors: first, the trend of gradual increases in TV sizes; second, the slowdown in capacity expansions for panel fabs; and finally, the continued high demand for IT panels, the manufacturing of which crowded out fab capacities for TV panels. Furthermore, due to the aforementioned decreases in TV panel capacity and TV panel shipment, the glut ratio of TV panel shipment vs. TV set sell-in this year is projected to reach 24%, which is lower than the 2019 figure of 31%, thereby generating an upward momentum for TV panel prices.
Yearly Mini LED backlight TV shipment is projected to reach 4.4 million units for 2021, a 2% penetration rate in the overall TV market, as brands begin integrating Mini LED backlights into their TVs and continue to improve technologies as well as optimize costs, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. While Apple is set to release IT products featuring Mini LED backlights, Korea-based Samsung and LG will both debut their own Mini LED backlight TVs in 2021. In particular, as part of its effort to deploy Mini LED backlight across its product mix, Samsung is targeting a yearly shipment of more than two million Mini LED TVs next year in anticipation of high market demand.
