On October 4, 2020, SMIC made formal announcements assessing the Commerce Department’s notification to SMIC's suppliers that they will be restricted from shipping certain U.S.-originated equipment, components, and raw materials to the Chinese foundry, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. U.S.-based semiconductor equipment suppliers, including Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA, are expected to bear the brunt of the impact from the latest sanction against SMIC, while Netherlands-based ASML will be affected as well, since its machines contain U.S.-originated key components. By contrast, TrendForce’s preliminary analysis indicates that the export restrictions will likely have less of an impact on suppliers of silicon wafers and other raw chemical materials for semiconductors, since these suppliers are mostly Japanese and European companies.
Yearly TV panel shipment for 2020 is projected to reach 267.53 million units, a 6.2% decrease YoY, while shipment by area is projected to increase by 0.7% YoY, coming to 169.6 million square meters, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. The decrease can mostly be attributed to three factors: first, the trend of gradual increases in TV sizes; second, the slowdown in capacity expansions for panel fabs; and finally, the continued high demand for IT panels, the manufacturing of which crowded out fab capacities for TV panels. Furthermore, due to the aforementioned decreases in TV panel capacity and TV panel shipment, the glut ratio of TV panel shipment vs. TV set sell-in this year is projected to reach 24%, which is lower than the 2019 figure of 31%, thereby generating an upward momentum for TV panel prices.
Yearly Mini LED backlight TV shipment is projected to reach 4.4 million units for 2021, a 2% penetration rate in the overall TV market, as brands begin integrating Mini LED backlights into their TVs and continue to improve technologies as well as optimize costs, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. While Apple is set to release IT products featuring Mini LED backlights, Korea-based Samsung and LG will both debut their own Mini LED backlight TVs in 2021. In particular, as part of its effort to deploy Mini LED backlight across its product mix, Samsung is targeting a yearly shipment of more than two million Mini LED TVs next year in anticipation of high market demand.
After a period of back-and-forth negotiations, the sale of CEC Panda has finally materialized, as BOE formally announced on September 23 its plan to acquire an 80.831% share in CEC Panda’s Nanjing-based Gen 8.5 fab and 51% share in CEC Panda’s Chengdu-based Gen 8.6+ fab, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. The acquisition is expected to be in its final stages by now. After BOE’s B17 (Gen 10.5) fab began operating in 2020, the company now possesses about 21.1% of the global large-sized panel capacity. On the other hand, CEC Panda’s Nanjing-based Gen 8.5 fab and Chengdu-based Gen 8.6 fab collectively accounts for about 4.7% of the global total. As such, if the acquisition takes place successfully, BOE will possess more than a quarter of the global large-sized panel capacity, and this share is expected to further increase to 28% in 2021. Within the context of the global display panel industry, the acquisition will not only bolster BOE’s leadership position, but also increase its influence considerably.
Display panel prices exhibited a remarkable QoQ increase in 3Q20, a rare occurrence in recent years, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. In particular, prices for NB (notebook computer) panels increased by 5-10% QoQ during the quarter, while the corresponding increase in TV panel prices reached above 30%. Since the supply of large-sized panels is expected to exceed demand by a mere 0.2% in 4Q20, the shortage situation for certain panel applications is expected to persist, meaning panel prices may potentially increase by as much as 10% QoQ in 4Q20.
