Citing the U.S. government’s JEDI contract as well as the increased need for telework due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce has now raised its previous forecast of 2Q20 server DRAM price trend from a 15% increase QoQ up to a 20% increase QoQ. The same uptrend is reflected in 2Q20 enterprise SSD prices as well, with the previous forecast of a 5-10% increase QoQ now corrected up to a 10-15% increase QoQ. In addition, memory suppliers are now facing low inventory levels, subsequently prompting them to maintain the 2Q20 price upsurge.
The smartphone supply chain is continuing to feel the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak. Owing to hindrances such as uneven factory work resumption statuses, a generally low rate of returning labor, and breaks in logistics and transportation, the supply chain has not been recovering as previously expected. The outbreak’s impact is projected to last 1-3 months, and the supply chain will not recover to normal levels until the second half of March at the earliest. Therefore, TrendForce is further reducing its previous projection of 1Q20 smartphone production from the pre-outbreak forecast of 307 million units to 270 million units, a 13.3% decrease YoY.
Under the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, the notebook supply chain is facing many challenges in work resumption delays, labor shortages, material shortages, and logistic/transportation restrictions. TrendForce is hereby lowering its February notebook shipment forecast from 10.8 million units previously to 5.7 million units, a 47.6% decrease YoY.
According to the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, 4Q19 NAND flash bit shipment increased by nearly 10% QoQ thanks to demand growth from data center clients. On the supply side, contract prices made a successful rebound due to shortages caused by the power outage at Kioxia’s Yokkaichi production base in June. In sum, 4Q19 NAND flash revenue reached $12.5 billion, an 8.5% increase QoQ.
According to the DRAMeXchange research division of TrendForce, the DRAM inventory finally returned to a relatively normal level for most OEMs in 4Q19 after nearly three consecutive quarters of adjustments. As the growth in the industry’s overall DRAM supply will be fairly limited in 2020, buyers have been raising procurement ahead of time. Therefore, despite the relatively strong base period in 3Q19, DRAM suppliers increased their sales bits in 4Q19. This increase was able to largely offset the declines in their quotes. All in all, 4Q19 global DRAM revenue registered a minor decrease of 1.5% QoQ, showing a relatively flat trend compared to the previous quarter.
