Investigations by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, show peak season demand growth and, in turn, production volume growth for the smartphone market in 3Q weakening in comparison to previous peak-seasons, for which production volume growths of 10% QoQ and above were the norm. The decline for total smartphone production this year is forecast to remain near 5%. Pull-ins have slowed in 1H, and we see suppliers yet to fully clear their large levels of inventories. Despite the Japan-South Korea incident over material exports, which resulted in rumors of price trend reversals circulating in the market, pressure to clear inventories still remained high. Adding the fact that though some DRAM suppliers have announced plans to reduce production capacity, the actual extent of those reductions were generally low,consisting mostly of capacity reductions for older processes or capacity reductions as a result of process switching. Until mainstream products become unprofitable, DRAM suppliers are unlikely to make large reductions to capacity. And though prices in spot markets have seen slight fluctuations, contract prices remain on a downwards trend overall.
According to the latest Infrared Sensing Application Market Trend Report by LEDinside, a division of TrendForce, seeing that smartphone shipments are predicted to decline for whole 2019 year, cell phone brands will be engaging in a 'specs -contest' with their flagship devices for the second half-year, and 3D sensing modules will become an important component in that race. Market revenue for VCSELs used by cell phones utilizing 3D sensing is projected to reach US$1.139 billion as a result of this trend.
According to the latest 2019 Chinese LED Chip and Package Industry Market by LEDinside, a division of TrendForce, growth in the global LED lighting market has slowed down noticeably due to the global economic recession and the US- China trade dispute. Revenues for lighting LED packages were affected as a result. In 2018, China's LED packaging market scale for general lighting applications stood at US$5.2 billion, with a visible slowdown glanced from a CAGR of only 3% throughout the forecast period, 2018-2023.
Ever since China's 531 New Policy came into effect back in 2018, Chinese manufacturers impacted by the policy actively sought expansion overseas in order to lessen the risks from the policy. Adding that the distribution of global markets is becoming more diverse and dispersed, we see global demand for PV modules being pushed up as a result. EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, gives the following outlook for 2H19: Clients will slightly reduce pull-ins for 3Q, but this is expected to be a temporary state of rest for the market, which may still see demand for the whole 2019 year rise above 120GW.
DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, points out that after the Toshiba outage in mid-June, the Japanese government announced that it will be controlling South Korea-bound exports of three key materials used in the manufacturing of semiconductors, smartphones and panels, causing module manufacturers in the memory industry downstream to give higher quotes. However, since DRAM and NAND Flash inventories remain high, and that this is not a complete barring of materials but a prolonging of procedures, the possibility of a short-term, structural reversal of supply and demand is low.
