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According to TrendForce investigations, 2Q22 DRAM industry revenue reached US$25.59 billion, growing 6.5% QoQ. The primary reason for 2Q22 revenue growth stemmed from an increase in bit shipments from certain DRAM suppliers. Although PC and mobile DRAM were hit hard by inflation and weak demand, momentum in the server DRAM market remained strong in 1H22, driving quarterly shipment growth at the three top manufacturers to 5~10%.
According to TrendForce investigations into the DRAM market, under pressure from ever-increasing output, Korean manufacturers have significantly increased their willingness to compromise on pricing in order to stimulate buying from distributors and customers, leading to a steady expansion of falling prices. In addition to Korean manufacturers enthusiastically slashing prices, low-priced chips from the spot market are also circulating in the market. Other suppliers have no choice but to follow suit and fervently reduce pricing for sales, rapidly exacerbating the 3Q consumer DRAM price drop from the original estimate of 8~13% to a quarterly decline of 13-18%.
According to TrendForce's latest research report "TrendForce 2022 Self-Emitting Micro LED Display Cost and Trend Analysis," Micro LED light engine performance beats Micro OLED in terms of brightness, contrast ratio, and responsiveness in transparent AR smart glasses microdisplays and is ideal for applications in outdoor environments. Since 2021, more than 10 branded manufacturers around the world have launched Micro LED transparent AR smart glasses concepts and related suppliers have improved Micro LED technology and accelerated factory expansion in order to meet subsequent mass production planning. In 2026, the revenue of Micro LED transparent AR smart glasses chips is forecast at approximately US$38.3 million, with annual compound growth rate of Micro LED chips from 2023 to 2026 at approximately 704%.
According to TrendForce research, Intel plans to outsource the tGPU chipset in Meteor Lake to TSMC for manufacture. Mass production of this product was initially planned for 2H22 but was later postponed to 1H23 due to product design and process verification issues. Recently, the product’s mass production schedule has been postponed again to the end of 2023 for some reason, nigh completely cancelling 3nm production capacity originally booked in 2023 with only a marginal amount of wafer input remaining for engineering verification.
According to TrendForce, DRAM market demand bit growth will only amount to 8.3% in 2023, sub-10% for the first time in history, and far lower than supply-side bit growth of approximately 14.1%. Data indicates the DRAM market to be severely oversupplied at least in 2023 and prices may continue to decline. NAND Flash is still in a state of oversupply and, although prices are expected to fall in the first half of next year, NAND Flash has built-in price elasticity compared to DRAM and average prices are expected to stimulate density growth in the enterprise SSD market after declining for several consecutive quarters. Demand bits are expected to grow by 28.9%, while supply bits will grow by approximately 32.1%.
