According to the latest TrendForce research, the mass production schedule of new Sapphire Rapids products has been delayed due to the poor yield rate of the Intel 7 process. At present, the production yield rate of Sapphire Rapids is estimated at only 50~60%, which affects mainstream Sapphire Rapids MCC products. The company’s mass production planning has been deferred from 4Q22 to 1H23. This delay in the mass production schedule not only affects the ODM material preparation cycle, but also greatly reduces the proportion of OEMs and CSPs introducing Sapphire Rapids this year. AMD will be the biggest beneficiary. We estimate the market share of AMD x86 server CPU to be approximately 15% in 2022 and rise to 22% in 2023.
Looking at Apple's 2022 sales, the company began adjusting the proportion of new products after the initial wave of pre-orders. The market response after the release of the iPhone 14 Plus was lukewarm, escalating Apple's product adjustment process. The iPhone 14 Pro series boasts improved specifications yet unit prices are the same as last year's models, making pre-orders for the Pro series highly popular. In the past, the Pro series was the first choice for the earliest wave of users. In addition, the delayed launch of the 14 Plus this year has led to more concentrated buying than in previous years. TrendForce indicates that the production ratio of the two models of the iPhone 14 Pro series has been increased from the initially planned 50% to 60% and it cannot be ruled out that this ratio will continue rising to 65% in the future. At present, the overall proportion of new iPhone models in Apple's shipments will remain at 36% and the company’s 2022 iPhone shipment target is 240 million units, an annual increase of 2.8%.
TrendForce indicates that the rapid rise in the penetration rate of the global new energy vehicle (NEV) market has stimulated an increase in the installed capacity of power batteries on a yearly basis. At the same time, the technological path of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the field of electrochemical energy storage has become the mainstream solution for new installed capacity in recent years and its market share is rising rapidly. As EV and energy storage batteries are retired on a large-scale in the future, TrendForce estimates that the global market for EV and energy storage battery recycling will exceed 1TWh by 2030, of which the scope of lithium iron phosphate battery recycling will account for more than a 58% share.
According to TrendForce investigations, global TV shipments in 3Q22 reached 51.39 million units, growing 12.4% QoQ and falling 2.1% YoY. As the shadow of rising inflation envelops the world, consumer product budgets have become seriously constrained, indirectly inhibiting the willingness to purchase TV products. Entering the fourth quarter, TV brands have launched large-scale promotions in order to surge this year's shipments. TV shipments in 4Q22 are expected to increase by 10.8% QoQ to 56.96 million units, but still down 3.5% compared with the same period last year and a new low for the period. Under the influence of factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising inflation, and interest rate hikes, global TV shipments in 2022 are estimated at only 202 million units, falling 3.8% YoY, and the lowest level in the past decade.
According to the latest TrendForce research, pandemic-induced materials shortages abated in the second half of this year and the supply and delivery of short-term materials has recovered significantly. However, assuming materials supply is secure and demand can be met, the annual growth rate of server shipments in 2023 is estimated to be only 3.7%, which is lower than 5.1% in 2022.
