The U.S. Department of Commerce announced new semiconductor restrictions on October 7 in the United States. In addition to existing restrictions on the logic IC sector, this new update extends to the memory category. In addition to Chinese-funded enterprises, the extent of these restrictions stipulate foreign-owned production centers located in China will also need to apply for approval on a case-by-case basis in order to continue to obtain manufacturing-related equipment. In addition, the new restrictions increase the difficulty for China to obtain any chips that may be used for military purposes through imports.
TrendForce indicates, overall utilization rate of LCD large generational fabs of Gen.5 and above (in terms of wafer starts) slipping to 60% in 4Q22 cannot be ruled out, which would be the lowest level in the past ten years. Sluggish panel demand and the fact that most panel makers have officially turned from profit to loss in 2Q22 are the key factors forcing panel makers to take a more rigorous approach to production control in 2H22.
According to TrendForce's latest panel price report, TV panel pricing is expected to arrest its fall in October after five consecutive quarters of decline and the prices of certain panel sizes may even be poised to move up. The price decline of IT panels, whether notebook panels or LCD monitor panels, has also begun showing signs of easing and overall pricing of large-size panels is developing towards bottoming out.
According to a TrendForce investigations, memory pricing began to decline from 4Q21 due to weakening demand for certain consumer electronics. Coupled with the impact of rising inflation, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and pandemic policies, demand in peak season was weak, resulting in inventory pressure that has extended from the buyer side to manufacturers. In response to the aforementioned situation, Micron announced last week that it would cut production of DRAM and NAND Flash, becoming the first major memory manufacturer to officially reduce its capacity utilization plan. In terms of NAND Flash, the market situation is more severe than that of DRAM. As the average contract price of mainstream capacity wafers has fallen to their cash cost and is approaching the periphery of selling at a loss for various manufacturers, Kioxia also announced that it will reduce NAND Flash capacity utilization by 30% from October on the heels of Micron’s announcement.
According to the latest TrendForce research, shipments of gaming monitors are in decline for the first time since the product category was launched to market, with 2022 estimates lowered to 20.5 million units, a 10% drop YoY. The primary reasons for this downgrade are intensifying inflation in Europe and spiking interest rates in North America which have upset and displaced demand for consumer electronics products. In addition, delays in launching high-end graphics cards has also led some e-sports consumers to consider postponing purchases.
