According to TrendForce's latest research report "TrendForce 2022 Self-Emitting Micro LED Display Cost and Trend Analysis," Micro LED light engine performance beats Micro OLED in terms of brightness, contrast ratio, and responsiveness in transparent AR smart glasses microdisplays and is ideal for applications in outdoor environments. Since 2021, more than 10 branded manufacturers around the world have launched Micro LED transparent AR smart glasses concepts and related suppliers have improved Micro LED technology and accelerated factory expansion in order to meet subsequent mass production planning. In 2026, the revenue of Micro LED transparent AR smart glasses chips is forecast at approximately US$38.3 million, with annual compound growth rate of Micro LED chips from 2023 to 2026 at approximately 704%.
According to TrendForce research, Intel plans to outsource the tGPU chipset in Meteor Lake to TSMC for manufacture. Mass production of this product was initially planned for 2H22 but was later postponed to 1H23 due to product design and process verification issues. Recently, the product’s mass production schedule has been postponed again to the end of 2023 for some reason, nigh completely cancelling 3nm production capacity originally booked in 2023 with only a marginal amount of wafer input remaining for engineering verification.
According to TrendForce, DRAM market demand bit growth will only amount to 8.3% in 2023, sub-10% for the first time in history, and far lower than supply-side bit growth of approximately 14.1%. Data indicates the DRAM market to be severely oversupplied at least in 2023 and prices may continue to decline. NAND Flash is still in a state of oversupply and, although prices are expected to fall in the first half of next year, NAND Flash has built-in price elasticity compared to DRAM and average prices are expected to stimulate density growth in the enterprise SSD market after declining for several consecutive quarters. Demand bits are expected to grow by 28.9%, while supply bits will grow by approximately 32.1%.
The entire world utilizes the building of 5G networks to meet the needs of individual users and vertical industries and, as the ubiquity of 5Q continues to broaden, its applications cover the medical, education, industry, and agriculture sectors, forming a business model that can be replicated and promoted, and accelerating development of its network scale. TrendForce estimates that Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia will account for 74.5% of the global base station market in 2022.
The disruption of the chip supply chain caused by the pandemic in the past two years, as well as geopolitical flashpoints such as Sino-US trade frictions and the Russia-Ukraine war, have led regional economies worldwide to focus more on the autonomy of local production and supply chains. According to TrendForce research, in terms of 12-inch equivalent production capacity in various regions around the world, Taiwan will account for approximately 43% of capacity by 2025, followed by China at 27%, the United States at 8%, and South Korea at 12%. In terms of advanced process capacity below 7nm (inclusive), Taiwan will account for approximately 69% by 2025, South Korea 18%, the United States 12%, and China 1%. Compared with the landscape in 2022, it is obvious that the United States will increase its proportion of advanced process production capacity in the next three years, while China will focus on mature processes.
