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In review of the NAND flash market in the first quarter, although output only increased by 6.1% QoQ, weak demand due to seasonality resulted in market oversupply. Average NAND flash contract price fell by 18-20% QoQ, while NAND flash suppliers’ revenue and operating margins also decreased compared to the fourth quarter of 2013...
As SK Hynix recovers from the fire at its Wuxi fab, the fourth quarter supply shortage has eased, and contract price has begun to fall – the 4GB contract price high dropped from US$35 to US$34 in January...
Although the SK Hynix fire affected NAND flash capacity, as memory makers were overly optimistic towards demand in the fourth quarter, supply exceeded demand and average NAND flash contract price fell by 13-14% QoQ. NAND flash suppliers’ revenue and operating margins fell in the fourth quarter...
The fire at SK Hynix’s Wuxi fab had a significant impact on the NAND flash market in the third quarter, and will continue to do so in the fourth quarter. Some memory suppliers reallocated NAND flash capacity to DRAM in the wake of the fire, and the reduced output helped stabilize the NAND flash price trend in September and eased oversupply in the fourth quarter. However, the demand outlook is conservative, TrendForce expects short-term NAND flash industry growth will be limited...
According to DRAMeXchange, a division of global research firm TrendForce, initial DRAM price trend projections for the second half of 2013 were gloomy, but the September fire at SK Hynix’s Wuxi fab temporarily resulted in severe supply shortage. Spot prices increased by 40% with DDR3 2Gb hitting US$2, while contract price reached a high of US$34. However, as SK Hynix and Samsung both increased production in the wake of the fire, the price uptrend that resulted from the incident has already been suppressed, and the contract price trend is expected to stay flat or decrease slightly in the fourth quarter...
In the second quarter, NAND flash bit output only increased 8.4% QoQ since suppliers did not expand capacity. Furthermore, as manufacturers reduced supply to channel clients to help stabilize the market, smartphone and tablet shipments were as expcted. With healthy supply and demand, second-quarter NAND flash contract price was roughly the same as the previous quarter...
DRAM contract price increased by 16% in the second quarter, with DDR3 4GB price hitting US$27.50. Although PC shipments are traditionally weak in the second quarter, PC OEMs’ DRAM inventory levels were insufficient in the second quarter and they expected prices to rise in the third quarter. Furthermore, as first-tier DRAM makers like Samsung and SK Hynix are increasing mobile memory production and decreasing commodity DRAM output, second-quarter prices rose. However, as PC shipment outlook is weak for the second half of the year, DRAM contract price growth slowed at the end of the second quarter, creating uncertainty towards third-quarter figures. Furthermore, as PC OEMs’ inventory levels are climbing, TrendForce expects contract price to stay flat or even decrease in the second half of the year...
Although NAND flash demand fell by 5-10% in the first quarter due to seasonality, bit growth only increased by 8% QoQ as a result of suppliers slowing capacity expansion plans to decrese output. Thus, the sufficiency ratio fell to 2.8% in the first quarter, keeping NAND flash contract prices at a healthy level...
DRAM spot price was strong in the first quarter; average DDR3 4GB contract price increased nearly 36%, from US$17.25 to US$23.5, while 2GB module price rose an average of almost 44%. From the market perspective, as top tier DRAM makers continue to shift production to mobile and server memory, commodity DRAM is forecast to account for 32% of total DRAM output this year, down from 44% in the fourth quarter of 2012. Beginning in the second quarter of 2013, mobile DRAM will replace commodity DRAM as the product category with the greatest share of the memory market...
After the Chinese New Year holiday, NAND flash market related vendors anticipate seasonality will result in a sluggish market starting from late 1Q13 . Although vendors are temporarily pulling back on capacity expansion plans to slow bit supply growth, NAND flash prices remain on a slight downtrend. As new smartphone, tablet, and ultrabook models hit the market and spur restocking demand in the second half of the year, NAND flash prices may have a chance to recover in the third quarter...
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