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Zhengzhou, the capital China’s Henan Province, was hit with a wave of COVID-19 outbreaks in the middle of October. The spread of the disease eventually reached Foxconn’s manufacturing base, where the number of infections rose significantly in late October. This event has thus directly affected the performances of the iPhone production lines that are deployed within the base. In its latest investigation of this event, TrendForce finds that the capacity utilization rates of the iPhone production lines have climbed back to around 70% as the local outbreaks are being gradually brought under control.
According to TrendForce, global notebook shipments in 4Q22 are likely to decline to 42.9 million units, down 7.2% QoQ and 32.3% YoY, lower than the same period before the pandemic. In addition, market demand is affected by negative factors such as inventory, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and rising inflation, leading to a downward revision of notebook market shipments in 2022 to 189 million units, a 23% decline YoY, with the proportion of shipments in the first and second half of the year at 53:47, the first top-heavy scenario in the past ten years.
According to the latest TrendForce research, the mass production schedule of new Sapphire Rapids products has been delayed due to the poor yield rate of the Intel 7 process. At present, the production yield rate of Sapphire Rapids is estimated at only 50~60%, which affects mainstream Sapphire Rapids MCC products. The company’s mass production planning has been deferred from 4Q22 to 1H23. This delay in the mass production schedule not only affects the ODM material preparation cycle, but also greatly reduces the proportion of OEMs and CSPs introducing Sapphire Rapids this year. AMD will be the biggest beneficiary. We estimate the market share of AMD x86 server CPU to be approximately 15% in 2022 and rise to 22% in 2023.
Looking at Apple's 2022 sales, the company began adjusting the proportion of new products after the initial wave of pre-orders. The market response after the release of the iPhone 14 Plus was lukewarm, escalating Apple's product adjustment process. The iPhone 14 Pro series boasts improved specifications yet unit prices are the same as last year's models, making pre-orders for the Pro series highly popular. In the past, the Pro series was the first choice for the earliest wave of users. In addition, the delayed launch of the 14 Plus this year has led to more concentrated buying than in previous years. TrendForce indicates that the production ratio of the two models of the iPhone 14 Pro series has been increased from the initially planned 50% to 60% and it cannot be ruled out that this ratio will continue rising to 65% in the future. At present, the overall proportion of new iPhone models in Apple's shipments will remain at 36% and the company’s 2022 iPhone shipment target is 240 million units, an annual increase of 2.8%.
TrendForce indicates that the rapid rise in the penetration rate of the global new energy vehicle (NEV) market has stimulated an increase in the installed capacity of power batteries on a yearly basis. At the same time, the technological path of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the field of electrochemical energy storage has become the mainstream solution for new installed capacity in recent years and its market share is rising rapidly. As EV and energy storage batteries are retired on a large-scale in the future, TrendForce estimates that the global market for EV and energy storage battery recycling will exceed 1TWh by 2030, of which the scope of lithium iron phosphate battery recycling will account for more than a 58% share.
